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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-29 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday. Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little faster than the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-29 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 20.9, -47.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 7
2024-09-29 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY A COUPLE MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 47.5W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 47.5 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics