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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2024-09-29 04:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:34:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-29 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday. Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little faster than the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-29 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 290233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics