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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-10-02 16:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021452 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ANDROS ISLAND * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 90SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.2N 71.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 30.6N 69.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 39.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 43.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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