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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-24 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 210 WTPZ45 KNHC 240233 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around 00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to 105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane. The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating. The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner. John continues to move northward around 7 kt. This current motion should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland and dissipates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 7
2024-09-24 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 98.8W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple of hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next couple hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.8 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico in the next couple of hours. John will continue to move inland over southern Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. John is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible the next couple of hours before John makes landfall. After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken over the high terrain of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-09-24 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240232 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ACAPULCO 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) P MALDONADO 64 51 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics