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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 4
2024-09-24 10:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Indian Pass * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Flamingo to south of Englewood * West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-09-24 10:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240858 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-24 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 523 WTPZ45 KNHC 240852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John moved inland at around 0315 UTC as a 105 kt Category 3 Hurricane. Since that time, the the storm has apparently turned more leftward and remains just inland, skirting the southern coast of Mexico. While surface observations have been sparse, my best guess is that the storm recently passed just to the north of Acapulco, where the airport earlier reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts and west winds as the pressure dropped to 998 mb. Assuming the small core has continued to quickly weaken, John is being downgraded to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 60 kt this advisory. Following fixes from earlier microwave and more recent geostationary satellite imagery, John now appears to be moving northwestward at 310/7 kt. The track forecast, which has been problematic with John from the start, is just as difficult now. John has continued to deviate westward of the previous forecast track and is now moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. To make matters worse, a decent chunk of the of the global models guidance (ECMWF, UKMET) and hurricane regional models (HWRF, HMON) suggest the circulation could continue turning westward and attempt to re-emerge over the Eastern Pacific. Even the GFS and CMC solutions, which appear to dissipate the surface circulation inland over Mexico, show the mid-level circulation persisting and drifting back offshore, leading to the development of a new low-level circulation. Because it is becoming distinctly possible that John does not move far enough inland to dissipate entirely, and the aforementioned continued leftward trends, the latest NHC track forecast is altered quite a bit form the prior forecast, and now shows the possibility that John, albeit as a tropical depression, moving back offshore as it becomes tangled in the larger monsoonal flow. By 72 h, most of the track guidance shows the system moving back inland. The updated track forecast is roughly in between the HCCA and ECMWF trackers, and is of very low confidence given John's track history. It also remains possible the system could dissipate later today if it moves further inland. Intensity-wise, John should continue to rapidly weaken as long as it remains onshore, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the tropical cyclone weakening to a tropical depression later today. However, the new NHC forecast now maintains the system as a depression and does not show dissipation beyond 24 h given the latest track forecast taking the system along the coast of Mexico and not far enough inland to completely dissipate. Some of the models (notably the ECMWF) attempt to also re-intensify John as it gets far enough back offshore, but given the large changes made on this forecast cycle, the NHC intensity will not show that solution quite yet. Even if John remains inland, larger-scale moist monsoonal southeasterly flow will persist along the southern coast of Mexico, likely contributing to catastrophic rainfall both along the coast and inland over the up-slope portion of the mountainous terrain. This is a very dangerous life-threatening flooding scenario. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John could still producing tropical storm conditions for the next few hours in the tropical storm warning area. 2. Slow-moving John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.3N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics