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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-09-24 10:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 240858 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 2(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 2(51) X(51) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 31(41) X(41) X(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 56(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 65(70) X(70) X(70) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 77(79) X(79) X(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 54(54) 2(56) X(56) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 2(60) X(60) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) 1(69) X(69) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) X(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 4(43) X(43) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) MACON GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 27(27) 17(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 32(33) 29(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-09-24 10:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240858 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-24 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 523 WTPZ45 KNHC 240852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John moved inland at around 0315 UTC as a 105 kt Category 3 Hurricane. Since that time, the the storm has apparently turned more leftward and remains just inland, skirting the southern coast of Mexico. While surface observations have been sparse, my best guess is that the storm recently passed just to the north of Acapulco, where the airport earlier reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts and west winds as the pressure dropped to 998 mb. Assuming the small core has continued to quickly weaken, John is being downgraded to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 60 kt this advisory. Following fixes from earlier microwave and more recent geostationary satellite imagery, John now appears to be moving northwestward at 310/7 kt. The track forecast, which has been problematic with John from the start, is just as difficult now. John has continued to deviate westward of the previous forecast track and is now moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. To make matters worse, a decent chunk of the of the global models guidance (ECMWF, UKMET) and hurricane regional models (HWRF, HMON) suggest the circulation could continue turning westward and attempt to re-emerge over the Eastern Pacific. Even the GFS and CMC solutions, which appear to dissipate the surface circulation inland over Mexico, show the mid-level circulation persisting and drifting back offshore, leading to the development of a new low-level circulation. Because it is becoming distinctly possible that John does not move far enough inland to dissipate entirely, and the aforementioned continued leftward trends, the latest NHC track forecast is altered quite a bit form the prior forecast, and now shows the possibility that John, albeit as a tropical depression, moving back offshore as it becomes tangled in the larger monsoonal flow. By 72 h, most of the track guidance shows the system moving back inland. The updated track forecast is roughly in between the HCCA and ECMWF trackers, and is of very low confidence given John's track history. It also remains possible the system could dissipate later today if it moves further inland. Intensity-wise, John should continue to rapidly weaken as long as it remains onshore, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the tropical cyclone weakening to a tropical depression later today. However, the new NHC forecast now maintains the system as a depression and does not show dissipation beyond 24 h given the latest track forecast taking the system along the coast of Mexico and not far enough inland to completely dissipate. Some of the models (notably the ECMWF) attempt to also re-intensify John as it gets far enough back offshore, but given the large changes made on this forecast cycle, the NHC intensity will not show that solution quite yet. Even if John remains inland, larger-scale moist monsoonal southeasterly flow will persist along the southern coast of Mexico, likely contributing to catastrophic rainfall both along the coast and inland over the up-slope portion of the mountainous terrain. This is a very dangerous life-threatening flooding scenario. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John could still producing tropical storm conditions for the next few hours in the tropical storm warning area. 2. Slow-moving John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.3N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics