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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-03 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:23:07 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-03 10:40:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030840 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm's current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-10-03 10:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the circulation. Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near the CI numbers. Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. After 36 hours, Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward by late Sunday or Monday. There is lower-than-normal spread among the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the previous advisory. The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg Celsius. If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to category 4 strength. The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance during the short term. After 36 hours, increasing deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is now forecast to be extratropical by day 5. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 46.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 23.5N 49.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 25.4N 50.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 28.0N 50.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 44.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics