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Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-10-02 04:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020240 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-10-02 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The depression has not become better organized this evening. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level center, which is now exposed to the east of the thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, near the high end of the satellite estimates. The system is close to the coast, currently over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and appears to be moving northward at about 5 kt. The models don't have a good handle on this system, likely because it is weak and relatively small. The official track forecast continues to lean heavily on the ECMWF solution, taking the system inland over southern Mexico on Wednesday. There could be a little strengthening before the depression reaches the coast, but given its current structure, significant intensification is not expected. The main impact from the system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland over southern or southeastern Mexico on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for that area. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112024)
2024-10-02 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 9:00 PM CST Tue Oct 1 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.6, -94.6 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics