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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 22:59:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 202059 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS. NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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