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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-21 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210255 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA ROSALIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 109.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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