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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 14
2019-09-20 23:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 202101 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia, and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas. None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Lorena has been moving little during the past few hours, but the hurricane should begin a northwesterly track tonight. On this track, the core of the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena moves inland. If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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