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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-21 04:56:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210256 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa Rosalia. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday night. After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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