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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-10-08 22:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 082039 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO ANCLOTE RIVER. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AND FROM SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 85.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 85.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 85.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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