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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category 5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090854 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 090854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 11(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 14(15) 38(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 1 42(43) 22(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 47(48) 37(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ORLANDO FL 50 X 9( 9) 37(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ORLANDO FL 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 44(46) 44(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 6( 6) 52(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PATRICK AFB 34 2 45(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PATRICK AFB 50 X 6( 6) 53(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 42(44) 41(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) 39(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 2 31(33) 30(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 22(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 13 66(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 50 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 5 76(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) FT MYERS FL 50 1 28(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT MYERS FL 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VENICE FL 34 27 72(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 2 85(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 34 5 89(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 1 67(68) 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) TAMPA FL 64 X 38(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 50(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics