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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 090854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 11(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 14(15) 38(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 1 42(43) 22(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 47(48) 37(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ORLANDO FL 50 X 9( 9) 37(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ORLANDO FL 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 44(46) 44(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 6( 6) 52(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PATRICK AFB 34 2 45(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PATRICK AFB 50 X 6( 6) 53(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 42(44) 41(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) 39(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 2 31(33) 30(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 22(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 13 66(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 50 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 5 76(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) FT MYERS FL 50 1 28(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT MYERS FL 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VENICE FL 34 27 72(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 2 85(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 34 5 89(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 1 67(68) 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) TAMPA FL 64 X 38(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 50(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)
2024-10-09 10:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 24.5, -85.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 907 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb (26.78 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics