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Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 17
2024-10-09 10:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb (26.78 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2024-10-09 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:39:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:39:31 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2024-10-09 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity at 70 kt. Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049 UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics