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Hurricane NEWTON Public Advisory Number 9
2016-09-06 22:44:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 ...HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXTENDED NORTHWARD... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 111.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF LORETO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico south of Altata, on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula south of La Paz, and on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to Santa Fe * La Paz to Mulege * Guaymas to Puerto Libertad A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos * North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Altata to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. In the southwestern United States, see products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for information on possible heavy rains, flooding, and high winds. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. Newton is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight with this motion continuing through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Newton will pass over portions of Baja California Sur during the next few hours and then emerge over the Gulf of California. The center of Newton should reach the coast of northwestern Mexico early Wednesday and is expected to reach southeastern Arizona Wednesday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in northwestern Mexico, followed by weakening after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The Mexican automated station at Loreto recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm and hurricane conditions continue to occur over much of the warned area of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These hazardous wind conditions will spread northward during the remainder of today within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over northwestern Mexico within the warning area, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day and into tonight. Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Sonora, western Nayarit, and Jalisco through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona to southwestern and south-central New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center on the southern Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Elevated water levels are also expected in areas of onshore wind flow. SURF: Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, but will begin to subside on Wednesday. Large swells are occurring along the coast of Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of California today and Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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