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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290258 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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