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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 11
2015-10-22 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO TOMORROW... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 104.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.6 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, and Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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