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Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 16
2015-10-23 22:59:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232059 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 105.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...190 MPH...305 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 105.2 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should make landfall during the next several hours on the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Patricia has weakened a little during the past few hours and that maximum sustained winds are near 190 mph (305 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall, Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter Data is 900 mb (26.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should spread across the hurricane warning area during the next few hours, with the worst conditions occurring near where the eye of Patricia makes landfall. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and this evening. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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