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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 19
2018-09-29 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 184 WTPZ35 KNHC 292041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...ROSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 118.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California during this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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