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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-11-04 03:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 040241 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 0300 UTC TUE NOV 04 2014 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VANCE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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