je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics
2024-09-16 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:46:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 08:46:49 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-16 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 830 WTNT43 KNHC 160845 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the center has not become well defined. The associated deep convection has a generally linear orientation and has been displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt. The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the ill-defined nature of the center. The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this evening. 2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-16 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 742 FONT13 KNHC 160845 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 9 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 31 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 34 42 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 27 19(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) LITTLE RIVER 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 83 2(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 91 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CHARLESTON SC 34 41 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 12 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics