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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-04 09:50:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040850 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 The system's deep convection is gradually becoming better organized with a little more concentration of the shower and thunderstorm activity. However, convective banding features are not yet well defined, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane aircraft did not show a distinct circulation center. Surface observations and scatterometer data indicate very light winds over the western portion of the disturbance. Since the circulation has yet to become well defined, the system is still being designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this time. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt based on the scatterometer winds and the aircraft observations. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is rather uncertain. My best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/6 kt. Over the next few days, the system should move generally northwestward on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system near and east of the Florida peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance diverges significantly, with the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met office model predictions well to the southwest of most of the other guidance tracks. The motion during the latter part of the period is partially dependent on how much the mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast is eroded by the upstream flow and how strong and vertically deep the tropical cyclone will become. The details of this evolution are not well known at this time. In any event it should be noted that, given the uncertainty in the center location, there is greater than usual uncertainty in the track forecast. As noted earlier, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity prediction. For the next 48 hours or so, the system will be traversing waters of high oceanic heat content with low vertical wind shear. Therefore strengthening is likely, but the amount of intensification is largely dependent on whether a well-defined inner core and vertically aligned circulation develops. If this evolution occurs, which cannot be known with great certainty, significant intensification is likely before the system reaches Western Cuba. Later, the environment over the Gulf of Mexico should be less conducive for strengthening with strong southwesterly shear and drier air. The official intensity forecast lies between the more conservative statistical-dynamical guidance and the more aggressive regional hurricane models. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba. 2. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as hurricane and tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas later today. 3. The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall would then spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/1800Z 15.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 05/0600Z 17.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 19.1N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 20.8N 81.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 22.7N 83.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 24.2N 84.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Patty Graphics
2024-11-04 09:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 08:49:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 09:22:59 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-11-04 09:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 539 WTNT42 KNHC 040848 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 This morning's METSAT-10 satellite imagery presentation consists of a fragmented curved band with -30C to -40C cloud tops displaced to the east of the exposed elongated surface center. A blend of the TAFB and SAB subjective and UW-CIMSS objective technique satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. Although Patty's cloud pattern is typical of a sheared tropical cyclone, the FSU cyclone phase diagram based on the GFS and ECMWF models indicates an asymmetric deep cold core thermal structure. Despite the sub-23C oceanic sea surface temperatures, the very cold upper-tropospheric temperatures are more than likely supporting sufficient thermodynamic instability to produce the remaining convection associated with the cyclone. The vertical tilt with height is becoming more pronounced due to the strong westerly shear and Patty should spin down while losing what remains of the convection and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The global models agree with Patty opening up into a trough by the 36 hr period and the official forecast follows suit. Patty's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 070/17 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected today and this motion should continue until it dissipates on Tuesday. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids. Key messages: 1. Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics