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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-29 22:44:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292044 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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