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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-30 16:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 301436 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142017 1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO EAST OF LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF TODOS SANTOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ON THE MAINLAND FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO EAST OF LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF LA PAZ TO LORETO * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO HUATABAMPITO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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