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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 2A
2017-08-30 07:42:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 300542 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142017 1200 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 108.2W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 108.2 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance will be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and it could become a hurricane by late Thursday. The disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and only a small increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late today or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible in rainbands along the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco today. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible along the immediate coast. This rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells will likely reach the southern portions of Baja California Sur later today, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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