je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-09-23 22:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 858 WTNT24 KNHC 232051 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 82.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-23 22:50:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:50:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-23 22:49:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232049 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John continues to rapidly strengthen. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90 kt range. On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more symmetric. The latest visible images have shown hints of a small eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours. Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane. Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical wind shear and a moist atmosphere. The only potential limiting factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline. The DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid intensification over next 12 hours. The latest NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point and when it reaches the coast. John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt. The current motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 98.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics