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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-24 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240238 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 82.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-24 04:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:34:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:29:28 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-24 04:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 210 WTPZ45 KNHC 240233 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around 00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to 105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane. The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating. The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner. John continues to move northward around 7 kt. This current motion should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland and dissipates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics