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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2
2019-09-13 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130256 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 74.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the Volusia-Brevard County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. The disturbance has been meandering over the southeastern Bahamas. However, the system is expected to move slowly northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7 inches. The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern Georgia...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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