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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-09-23 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 231459 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 2(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) 1(45) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 1(31) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) 1(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 2(25) X(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 6(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 11(53) X(53) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 20(58) 1(59) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) X(23) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 34(66) 1(67) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 1(44) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 34(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 28(73) 1(74) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 29(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) ALBANY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) DOTHAN AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 13(42) X(42) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 35(65) 8(73) X(73) X(73) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-09-23 16:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231458 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 82.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-23 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 14:48:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 15:28:47 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics