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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-28 16:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281450 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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