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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-09-28 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282039 TCMEP1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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