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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-10-17 22:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172044 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 100SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 95.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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