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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-10-18 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180833 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 92.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.8N 89.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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