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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-02 09:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020856 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 The low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring over the northern Atlantic has gradually acquired subtropical characteristics during the past 12-24 h. The low has become detached from fronts and has a shallow warm-core structure, though it remains within a cooler airmass behind a cold front over the eastern Atlantic. Despite SSTs around 21 deg C, instability aloft has allowed the system to sustain some moderate convection that wraps most of the way around its center in geostationary and passive microwave images. Since the wind field is asymmetric and the system remains co-located with an upper-level low, it seems best classified as a subtropical cyclone, which is consistent with ST2.5 classifications from TAFB. Thus, the NHC is initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty. Earlier partial scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds in the southern semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt since it does not appear the strongest winds were sampled by the instrument. Patty is moving east-southeastward at 105/7 kt. The track guidance is in very good agreement that Patty will move faster toward the east-southeast through early Sunday, bringing the center near or over portions of the Azores. Then, a turn toward the east and east-northeast is expected through early next week as Patty is steered by an upper-level trough. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope, generally between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Little change in strength is expected today, and Patty is forecast to be a fairly short-lived subtropical cyclone. This is because westerly shear is forecast to increase over the system during the next couple of days, which will likely make it difficult for the system to sustain convection near and around its center. Due to its increasing forward speed, the strongest winds of Patty should generally remain over the southern portion of the circulation during its lifetime. Given the non-tropical origins of this system, the NHC intensity forecast leans more heavily on the GFS and ECMWF global models, which lie on the lower end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 39.9N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-02 09:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020855 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 46 16(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 12(12) 28(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Subtropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-02 09:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... As of 9:00 AM GMT Sat Nov 2 the center of Patty was located near 39.9, -34.4 with movement ESE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics