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Subtropical Storm Patty Public Advisory Number 1
2024-11-02 09:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020854 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Patty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 02 2024 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 34.4W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 34.4 West. The storm is moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster east-southeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and east-northeast on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little intensity change is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast through early next week. Patty could degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Azores this weekend. See products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more information. RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across the Azores through Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2024-11-02 09:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 08:43:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 08:43:30 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-02 09:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 115 WTPZ43 KNHC 020842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40 kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS solution is correct. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics