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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-10-02 22:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022045 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The lastest visible satellite imagery shows the center of the depression as a tight swirl of low-level clouds near patches of strong, but somewhat disorganized, convection. The remnant vorticity of the 97E disturbance, also a swirl of low clouds, was seen earlier to the southeast of the depression center. A recent ASCAT overpass shows a small wind core matching the tight cloud swirl with maximum winds of about 30 kt in the northwest quadrant, and based mainly on this the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast remains low confidence. The depression is currently undergoing a binary interaction with the EP97 disturbance, which has resulted in a southwestward motion during the past several hours. The models still have somewhat diverse solutions for the subsequent track, although the ECMWF has now joined the GFS and Canadian in forecasting a northward motion. However, the UKMET still forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore of the Mexican coast. An additional complication is that some of the guidance suggests the center could move eastward before beginning the northward motion. The new forecast track again has significant changes from the previous track to follow the northward motion scenario, bringing the center to the coast of Mexico between 36-48 h. However, it does not currently show any eastward motion before the northward motion, and more changes may be necessary in later advisories if the track guidance warrants. There is no change to either the intensity forecast philosophy or the intensity forecast. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112024)
2024-10-02 22:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.1, -96.5 with movement SSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 5
2024-10-02 22:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday through Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics