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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 5
2024-10-02 22:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday through Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-02 22:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 18.9, -44.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-10-02 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at 260/7 kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN. This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5 days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south towards the end of the forecast. The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13 ends up tracking further south than forecasted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 10.5N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics