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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-10-03 17:19:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 909 WTPZ41 KNHC 031435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial intensity for this advisory. The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows the center position becomes available. While the environment does not favor significant strengthening before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through 36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of Mexico. Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-03 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:23:06 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 17
2024-10-03 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031440 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk's satellite depiction has improved this morning after some dry air entrainment occurred overnight. The inner core has become re-established with cold cloud tops wrapping around the center. The eye has become more pronounced and rounded on infrared and visible imagery. Subjective data-T numbers have increased from the previous advisory to T5.5, from both TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have increased as well and range from 100-117 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the improving satellite trends the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 310/9 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. An approaching trough moving into the central Atlantic this weekend, will then cause Kirk to curve and turn northeastward between the aforementioned ridge and the trough to the west. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast, with only internal organizational eyewall replacement cycles or dry air intrusion limiting further strengthening over the next day or so. By late weekend, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Latest global guidance has Kirk becoming extra-tropical by Day 5, which is depicted in the NHC forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous and lies near the HFIP corrected-consensus aid. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.4N 45.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 47.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 22.8N 48.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 24.6N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 29.7N 49.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 33.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 40.3N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 45.4N 27.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Category: Transportation and Logistics