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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 8A
2024-10-03 19:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 95.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Puerto Angel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-10-03 17:27:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 190 WTNT23 KNHC 031437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 30.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-10-03 17:19:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 248 FOPZ11 KNHC 031435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics