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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180859 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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