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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-13 04:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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