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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 131447 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA... AND HOLGUIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. INTEREST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 78.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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