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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-09-30 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300837 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system. The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or two. Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-30 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 22.1, -49.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 12
2024-09-30 10:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300836 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics