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Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-30 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 ...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 34.1W ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 34.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-09-30 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300837 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system. The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or two. Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-30 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 34.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics