je.st
news
Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-30 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 300838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-09-30 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300837 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce's center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system. The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt. It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or two. Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60 hours if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-09-30 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 300837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 33.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 170NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 130SW 190NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 34.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics