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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2024-09-12 17:00:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:00:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:34:50 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-12 16:59:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center, but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h, westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low beyond 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-12 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics