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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-09-12 19:45:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121745 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 107.7W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today. After that, slight additional strengthening is possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-12 19:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory on Tropical Depression Francine, located inland over Mississippi. The next advisory will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center at 2100 UTC. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry air near the system could limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-12 19:12:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121712 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- developed Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics