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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-09-12 10:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 32.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Francine Public Advisory Number 14A
2024-09-12 07:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120552 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...CENTER OF FRANCINE PASSING NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 90.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower north-northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression later today and a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently reported sustained winds of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The Bay Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through early this morning. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through tonight. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban, and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible during the next few hours across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle today. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-12 07:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics